Phase Two: 2 Tribes

[John]

PHASE TWO

And we swap! I feel like swaps are so important to switching up dynamics in the game. Sure I think switching it up like they did in S41 and S42 without one was fun, because when people expect a swap not having one makes things more interesting. But when people start expecting the expected like in S43, that’s where you get stagnant gameplay. So switching things up keeps things interesting and we got really lucky with this swap. A near even split amongst tribes across the new tribes, and a massive wildcard in Ali being the The Islands exile. I’m here for it!

I’m not going to go into too much detail on the tribes but I want to give some highlights of what I’ve enjoyed so far

BARTALOME

The rise of Quintin as a major threat – he’s definitely in a strong position on this tribe and taking advantage of it, he’s playing smart and is starting to really gain agency, but someone has their eyes on them

Liz and Brian play the middle…hard – Liz and Brian are back on their bullshit and Liz especially is playing hard to target Gage, but will they get caught playing the middle too hard?

Karen is a star and she’s MAD – Karen has been an absolute all star on this tribe and is shaping up to be a major winner contender, but being exiled by Ali and having to do that challenge for nothing PISSED HER OFF! It’s hilarious!

Gage needs to BEWARE – Gage found the Bartalome beware advantage and now has two inactive Hidden Idols and a lot to try and accomplish at one Tribal Council. He needs to really get going trying to make something happen or else he could take both idols out of the game

Alexis the challenge star – she may not be the best socially, but to Alexis’ credit she was really strong in the challenge


FLOREANA

A bullet dodged – this tribe was an absolute mess in the challenge, even worse than the other tribe but a lot luckier!

The lines are blurred – this is a much harder tribe to read, there’s a lot more questions around who would end up in power and who would go if they lost, it could be anyone!



THE ISLANDS

Ali made some CHOICES – choosing to exile JM and Karen, betting on JM, knowing he could win a power…Ali really messed this one up. Not only did he exile an ally and potentially put him at a disadvantage, he literally had Alexis on the tribe who he knows is less active and would have been the far better choice to bet against for power

Yeah I have a lot more to say about Bartalome because they lost and are more interesting this round, but I’m sure Floreana will eventually have their moment!

[Casey]

Floreana - This tribe is an interesting vibe, I think a lot of them are trying to figure each other out.

Alex - Alex is very lucky he has the idol, and a good swap, cause Mathes, Ang & Cass all want to target him, because they think getting Erin would be tough, but they know he has the advantage. I;m hoping Alex is using Erin as a shield, but I’m gonna need him to have some more agency in their relationship, she completely has jumped ship from him to Mathes. I do think Erin will have say if they lose (esp twice) so he should be fine.

Ang - I have been loving Ang so much this game, but I am nervous for her on this tribe this is not the best swap, Alex likes her, Cassidy likes her, but is willing to sacrifice her if need be. I think she has a connection to Juan maybe? I think with time she can get herself into a etter position cause I think Ang could be a real winner contender! She is also looking at the college survivor people and I think thats very smart of her.

Cassidy - I am sooooo nervous for my she/they, this was not a great swap for them!!!! Cassidy has made a really good impression on Mathes and I think Erin and Mathes will control this vote. However, she is NOT connecting with Erin, so idk how that will go. Shes willing to drop Ang but I hope she isnt too quick to do it. If Cassidy is smart enough to get herself out of this (and I hope she can I know they want this soooo bad and I am such a stan.

Erin - I think Erin has huge winner potential at this point. Erin has Michael and Alex on lock, and has immediately dropped them for Mathes, so shes sitting pretty. Shell be in a really good spot if JM survives until merge, I think shell have a lot of information and a lot of protection. People like Cassidy and Ang are seeing her for a threat.

Juan- Juan needs to step it up a little bit more. Mathes is willing to leave him out to dry if it comes down to it. People are saying they havent heard from him much, but dont seem super concerned with him so it might come down to when they lose. He does want to work with Ang & Cass so I stan.

Mathes- I’m liking Mathes’ gameplay, hes made a great impression on Cassidy, hes in a great spot with Erin, Juan trusts him a ton, he has an advantage and can pick what to do. If he can not just give in to what Erin wants (like Alex & Michael), I think he has a ton of potential to go far. He has good relationships with Brian, Liz and JM on the other tribe, and with him being central here that covers a lot of bases, but he has a lot of plates to spin on this tribe, and hes kinda in the drivers seat. He did say he knows Erin will be a threat down the line but I’m impressed with Mathes

Michael - Michael hasnt been around too too much, people are saying hes the least active. People I think were gonna approach him but hes been very outwardly pro-blue. Alex gave him the heads up he talked shit about him on the islands and he seems fine with it??? I think hes gonna stick hard to OG blue.




Ali - LMAO. ALI’S PICKS MADE ME LAUGH. Like first off Ali going and not being able to talk LOL. And then omg both picks for both tribes, he picked Ang and juan if floreana lost and Ang wouldve beat his ass. Him picking his closest Ali just for a disadvantage, and then picking Karen thinking that the timezone would hinder her when it was during the day for her. It was so funny to see both tribes, and JM and Karen react to the picks. Sadly, Ali did not get the idol, I think it wouldve been super chaotic with him with it, and I do think he would try and make a big move, so excited to see what Ali brings to the Bartalome tribe!


Bartalome

Brian - Brian is in an okay spot for now but idk how long thats gonna hold. He’s very lucky he has Liz. They (or at least liz) are still trying to set themselves up to be in the middle which can be really tricky. Quintin has clocked Brian as a paranoid player, and I think won big points with Brian by giving his extra vote up for the tribal. He’s in the Yellow/Blue Alliance for now, but it’ll get messy when they lose again!

Liz - Again I am liking what I am hearing in Liz’s confessional! She knows playing the middle is risky, and I’m interested to see if she will get caught next round but she is SOLID with Brian, liked really well by Karen & Quintin, knows JM from Northeastern, and tipped off Gage not only that his name was out there but that he was getting a vote a well. I think Liz is going to have a ton of options in this game, its a matter of how well she can switch from one option to the other.


Gage - I am so happy Gage survived, and didnt die with the beware advantages yet, but its gonna be rough for him going forward. I do think it couldve been hard for him to get all three (or 6) words said but I wish he wouldve tried a little bit harder. People are thinking hes a threat but he did make a good impression on Liz, he has Karen, but she wont throw away her game for him, JM is willing to kinda dump him if need be tho. I am a Gage STAN

JM - What a round for JM, not a great swap with 3 Floreana and Ali on the way, but JMs name didnt really come up too much. I think the only reason his name wasnt brought up was cause of Liz. He is fully willing to jump ship on Gage and I think Ali too, but besides Liz, the Yellow/Blue Majority doesnt really care and hes trying to weasel his way in. Ali sending him to the island was hilarious. I do think JM could be fine, and I think that hell go deep at merge. I do want him to start playing into more of the narrative of the season, but I think he has a lot of options.

Quintin - Quintin has emerged as a real front runner this season, with this swap and seeing new faces hes found himself in a position of power within the new tribe. I think last round if alexis gave him anything he would have gotten his way, with gage going. He did really spook JM last round being so froward about the game, telling JM that keeping Alexis is the smarter move. Liz and Ali also clocked Quintin as a threat in confessionals, but Ali already seems in love with Quintin. I agree that hes definitely a bigger winner contender but people are def gonna see it.

RIP

Alexis - Alexis brought us so many laughs from the way she handled the islands and mystified her tribe to this round as well, but she was a hoot!

[Casey]

This round was UGLY….UGLY…AND IM SO SAD WE LOST CASS.

Like the fact that we lost another non-male was so atrocious. Everything Cassidy and Ang said last night was so so valid. It was heartbreaking to watch that happen after those speeches. Did Cass and Ang play this round great?.....not really no. But thinking that this trend has no impact or basis whatsoever is also misguided.

In the earlier rounds players like Liz justified voting out Caroline and Tegwyth saying that it’ll lessen the target on her back cause people are scared of womens alliances, and even on the islands with Ang last round, Liz was like “they wont vote out a women (or non-binary person) because of the optics”, and Ang correctly was like “optics dont matter unless, they dont care, they will do it anyway.”

That flawed logic is part of the reason we are where we are.

Floreana

I think John has a bit of a better handle of what went on but it was a goddamn mess. Essentially, all three iterations of previous tribe lines tried to join together ( Blue + Pink, Pink + Yellow, Yellow + Blue) and everyone started pointing fingers at each other about playing double agent, because Cassidy didnt immediately rat out one side to the other, she looked super shady.

Erin has already jumped ship and Mathes is her #1 now. She also has Michael and Alex (whom briefly escaped the mist this round but was swept back in). She told Mathes about Alex’s idol. Alex also told Ang. Juan mentions wanting Alex out because of the advantage in his confessional. Juan initially wants to work with the Floreana ladies and Mathes. Mathes is ready to drop Juan and almost does, but Juan doesnt realize he been dropped. Cassidy and Mathes talk and Mathes baits her into saying blue specially Alex, and then runs with it. . Ang tells Mathes about Alex’s idol and Mathes runs this to Erin.

Another wrinkle in this is that Erin is agreeing to Michael going but refusing to vote him out. That stands out as a huge preference and I feel like definitely puts the vote on Juan or at least that would make me think twice about working with OG Blue if they are putting their foot down that much.

Erin views the Floreanas correctly as trying to turn Alex and Mathes against each other, directly limiting her power. But Cass & Ang werent pulling stuff out of their ass, and making stuff up.

Erin did say in her confessional they are just playing but they were playing messy (I believe their flaw was trying to pull in the wrong people for the wrong move. Erin tells Alex Ang leaked his idol, and Alex actually doesnt believe that Ang told Mathes. Frustrated Mathes thinks Cassidy and Ang are voting Juan and Mathes decides to gun for them. Cassidy finds out from Ang (who found out from Alex) about what Mathes is up to and they ask Alex if he would be okay with a Mathes vote.

Ang tells Juan that Mathes is okay with him going and that the vote is him or Michael, Juan goes to Mathes who gets upset and lies and says hes only heard michael. Juan is pissed at the blues and mathes a lil bit, but knows that voting Ang or Cassidy is crucial for his survival.

Erin is completely fine leaving Alex out of the vote for one of the Floreanas if it came down to it.

The blue yellow conglomerate comes together talks shit and decides on Cass putting the nail in their coffin.

Alex does not trust Mathes after all of this cause he showed his ass pretty much, although he did get his intended outcome. Erin did really help Mathes, and with them putting their foot down Alex just caved.

Bartalome

Liz was really good on the island with Ang, gave not too much but got a lot of info, and made an ally possibly if Ang survives.

Gage is pissing off Brian (for not really specified reasons) and Liz is just fine letting Gage go even though she has put work into him. Liz and JM have been found out that they go to Northeastern, I think they shouldnt have lied about it (well JM did LOL). Everyone thinks Quintin has the beware advantage. JM doesnt want to get rid of Gage but is worried that everyone else will piss someone else off.

Ali & Quintin were talking and Quintin jokingly said they should do and islands alliance which turned into a real  Ali, JM, Quintin, & Karen alliance. Karen is like i dont wanna say no, but this puts here and Q in an awkward position

Quintins name is out there people like JM are onto him and how good of a player he is. People know he has the extra vote and some people think he has a beware advantage. One of the things stopping people from going after Quintin is that people dont want to piss off Karen!

However, Q is cognisant of how the Cassidy vote will impact his tribe, it paints a bigger target on blue, and he knows hes the man out of him and Karen. True ally Quintin says he would be targeting himself if he wasnt himself, he gets it! Quintin is worried about JM and is onto the JM/Liz relationship