Phase 3: Early Merge

[John]

PHASE 3: EARLY MERGE

We have made it to the merge! This season has definitely been…interesting…I guess that’s a word you can use for it. Overall though with the exception of the last Tribal Council on the Bartalome tribe, it’s been a pretty boring pre-merge phase of the game. Controversy aside around the gender makeup of the jury, I think overall assessing the pre-merge phase we saw a lot of weak or bad gameplay from players. This isn’t uncommon as a lot of people really feel as though making the merge is an accomplishment and play very cautiously to get there, but I hope we see a lot of players step up because right now there’s only a small handful of people I really feel like have potential to win, and in comparison to previous seasons we’ve had a lot more standouts. This season I feel like we have some standouts for the wrong reasons, in that they’re sticking out for bad gameplay. We’ll see how the merge spikes the gameplay of some of these players.

Going to dive into my thoughts on everyone, some will be more brief than others.


ALEX

After starting the game really strong and someone I was excited to see play, Alex has absolutely fizzled for me. I feel like he’s playing so much into Erin’s hand and she has him totally whipped. I hope we see an Alex that really fights for agency and to better his own position and his own game, but from what we’ve seen I’m moreso expecting him to just continue to play a game that benefits Erin. I hope he proves to be more dynamic.


ALI

Our favourite wildcard! Ali was left out of the blindside to take down JM and he knows his position within that group. I hope we get to see a more focused and strategic Ali show up, but although he’s super fun on calls and a bit of a mess, when it came to the last round he played so scared. He’s not going to win if he keeps playing that way!


BRIAN

Another player who has played the game so far really scared and paranoid. Brian is very keen on being the centre of attention as shown by him fighting Ali at Tribal Council, but when it comes to alliances and strategy he is so quick to just sit back and wait for things to happen. This only spikes his paranoia. I think Brian could go deep, but if he wants to win he needs to start showing more agency and being the person that calls the shots vs just calling people out.


ELIZABETH

Early in the game Liz became a bit of a leaky faucet and would just spread information everywhere. Luckily that calmed down a little bit in the previous round, but as a player who likes to be in control, I’m interested to see how she handles another alpha player like Erin. Obviously they will both be competing for Mathes’ loyalty as he was originally with Liz, but now solidly with Erin. How will Liz adapt if her secrets start spreading around like she would spread others. Will she burn out this merge or be able to find her footing? She’s one I’m really looking forward to seeing adapt to a more challenging game than she’s had in the pre-merge.


ERIN

The front runner coming into this merge. She’s taken the time to get rid of people she can’t work with and keep people who will be loyal to her. Erin’s challenge now is playing from power. Can she keep her allies in line and from turning on her and can she manager her closest allies Alex and Mathes who have proven to be major wildcards in the game?


GAGE

After pulling off a major coup and saving himself at the expense of JM, Gage is left “on the bottom” of his tribe. In reality, his connection with Karen and Quintin being under the radar really saved him, but as that has the potential to unravel in the merge will Gage be able to reintegrate with players or become the easy boot? I hope we see him play a bit more aggressively in terms of trying to make alliances, because he was a little too lax in the pre-merge and made it through by the skin of his teeth!


JUAN

Absolutely loved seeing Juan play a very self-preservation mode game in the pre-merge, but at the same time also hate how lax and on cruise control Juan plays when he’s not needing to save himself. Juan won’t win this game with that cruise control mentality, so now that he’s made the merge I hope we see a little bit more of that oomph we saw from him when he sold out Ang/Cass vs the cruise control Juan who is just happy to do nothing and coast. Tired of hearing him described a players others can easily control and have in their pocket.


KAREN

The star of the pre-merge, and honestly the star of the season. Karen is so funny and so aggressively likeable, but with that being said I do think she takes a back seat in terms of strategy and really pushing plays in the game. She’s proven in the pre-merge that she is down to clown and go for some big plays, but what I hope to see from Karen in this merge is he really try to steer her own ship to the end. She can rest on likeability, but doing so may result in her once again falling just short of the finals.


MATHES

After a really messy pre-merge, Mathes has found himself in a comfortable spot with his own tribe, but quickly we’ll see him regroup with Liz and I’m wondering how he plays of that relationship. He’s been a solid funnel of information to Erin in the game and I’m hoping we now start to see him really take control and do what’s in his best interests, rather than purely benefiting others. Does he play the middle of his original allies and his new ones, or does he sell out Liz/Brian to benefit Erin’s game? I’m expecting the latter but hoping for something more dynamic.


MICHAEL

Or as everyone refers to him in the game, Erin’s pocket vote. I hope Michael in the pre-merge was just him being chill and low key to make the merge, because he is so obviously expendable to his group in the sense that his name is constantly the one being thrown out as an option to vote for that if he just continues to play purely for them it will just be a bummer. In my opinion, right now he has no win equity at all so I really need to see a whole new Michael at merge to get behind him even slightly.


QUINTIN

An absolute king! Honestly me talking shit about Quintin not doing much in the game up until the last round in our round table must have manifested him absolutely turning up and running the show to take out JM. Because of Quintin (and assists from Gage and Karen), even if this season ends up being horrible, we have one of the most iconic moments we’ve ever had in the series. I love how Quintin isn’t afraid to take risks and is willing to go for power and get what he wants. So many people this season are playing so boring, safe and predictably that it’s awesome to have someone like Quintin willing to shake it up. Will he be able to last with his target level spiked in the game though? We’ll have to wait and see, but regardless he’s cemented himself as one of the top players of this season with that move already. The thing about these games is at the end of the day, if you want to leave your mark on them, it’s not by just playing for placement, it’s by being a part of killer moves like that which are innovative, entertaining and honestly good strategically! Take note people, Quintin just gave a masterclass on how to be interesting in an ORG.

[Casey]

Round 7 - Alex

These last few rounds have really been all over the place. Merge is upon us and people are playing hard and MESSY. Them doing tribal the night of the challenge by choice really pt a pressure spin on the Alex round.

Let’s start with the Alex round. That one was a little more straightforward but it was still such a hugeeeee mess. So when the merge hits people are trying to branch out, but Erin makes her swap tribe seem super united. Erin, Michael, and Alex wanted to pull in Karen and Quintin with the swap tribe. Particularly the 3 of Alex, Erin & Michael. Mathes is with Erin 100% and early on Mathes lets Erin know that it’s looking like Michael vs Gage, but it seemed like Gage likely had the votes to stay. Erin told people she was fine with Michael voting but that she wouldnt vote for him, which made some people feel uneasy. Alex was scaring people like Liz and that hard gameplay kinda spooked the other side into switching the vote onto Alex, also realizing he was a much bigger threat than Michael, and Quintin would get a power. Ali & Karen esp threw out Alexs name. Liz let Mathes know this was happening, but Mathes didnt tell Erin it was going to be Alex. Karent took a lot of the flack for making it too, because Karen burned her bridge with Erin and a few others because she is so direct and upfront, which def had impact on the next vote.

Round 8 - Ali

The next round after the fall out from the alex vote theres a lot of confusion. QUintin tried to lie about not being included either, but it is immediately sussed out as BS. I was really impressed with how Erin handled it. She worked hard, is still getting information, and is using this chip on her shoulder to build herself into a better position. This round started out as Brian pretty much making it him vs. Ali for like no reason. It is good to have a person in the game where you can have them as your enemy like i get that strategy but Brian way too personal. Everyone wanted to keep both of them to keep up this narrative but Brian pushed it so hard.

Erin finds the idol, after Quintin solves the last phrase for her then doesnt tell Quintin she has it. Erin tells Mathes, who tells Liz, who actually kept that one to herself but implied to Gage that she thought Erin had it because it wasnt there when she finished the hunt.

After Michael wins immunity Ali throws out a few names, one of which being Mathes. Then Gage/Ali/Liz push a Quintin vote, because Quintin is a huge threat, and get Mathes & Juan on board as well. They hope they rest of the votes split on Brian and Ali. Mathes and later Liz as well leak it to Erin, who tells Micheal, and Michael lets Juan know “the vote might change” which gets Erin in a bit of trouble. Before tribal Karen wakes up and pushes Erin, everyone is leaving Karen out of there plan so theory are just like sure Karen. Right before the vote Erin tells Quintin to play his idol, Quintin tells Liz, who lets Gage, Mathes, and Juan know QUintin knows but they dont have a back up plan and all vote different ways. Literally Everyone leaves Brian out of the vote even though his target of Ali goes home anyway. Quintin doesnt trust Erin enough to pay the idol so she plays hers. Negating the votes against her.

The votes:
2 Votes Karen - Erin, Michael (Thought Quintin was going home tried to get him to idol out Karen)
2 Votes Quintin - Ali, Mathes (Both ended up trying to stick to the Quintin plan just in case he didnt idol)
3 votes Erin negated - Karen was voting for Erin anyway, Gage and Liz, switched to Erin after they found out Quintin found out)
3 votes Ali - Quintin, Brian, Juan, Quintin was always hoping Ali would go, Brian was as well, Juan switched to Ali last minute.

[John]

Ok it’s been a minute since I’ve had an update, but I started a new job so I’ve been busy! I liked the headline format I did last time so I’m going to keep that up!


First let’s start with the fallen…


ALEX REAPS WHAT HE SOWED. So earlier in the game in the swap when Ang/Cass were targeted, it was very clear from the outside perspective that this move was the best for Erin and Mathes and significantly less ideal for other members in the game. Alex especially in this case where he threw away his relationship with Ang to go all in with an alliance where he was clearly at best in the middle, at worst on the bottom of. He chose teaming up with Mathes and Juan over that initial relationship and the first chance they got they turned on Alex at the merge. His narrative in the game amounting to being a move used to weaken Erin is essentially what he set up for himself. Wish he could have played for his own self interests vs playing so hard for Erin’s over his.

THE WILDCARD GETS A BAD SHUFFLE. Poor Ali! He really got a shitty hand with how the swap went down and the random stupid rivalry with Brian. Like Brian really was like I’m going to become an anchor in this game and drag Ali down with me! Ali was never really a contender to win in my opinion, but it was fun watching him because he wasn’t afraid to play hard. He really started the push on Quintin that round and if it wasn’t for Liz becoming too chaotic and scaring people leading into the vote. Unfortunately I think the only people who actually wanted him out the round he left were Quintin and Brian, but because of everyone else’s actions there votes had the most sway!

A SLOW NEWS DAY. Next out was Michael. Michael wasn’t really giving much to the game, everyone correctly saw him as a pocket vote for Erin and I think a lot of people made the right choice cutting him because a player like that could go deep just because they had no win equity. I think if Michael tried at all he could have easily had more life in the game but he also tried to vote himself out, so that really speaks to his impact on the game.


Now onto the players still in the game…


WE INTERRUPT THIS BROADCAST. I do not understand Brian's game at all LOL. I feel like it's clear he's making moves that he believes are in his best interest, but the constant spectacles at Tribal Council and the laser focus on targets for petty reasons. I feel like he doesn't realize that a lot of players are annoyed with his game style and see him as having very low equity, which will help him get far but without the self awareness on why people aren't wanting him out I think Brian will continue to play under the thought that he's exceeding and doing well and won't get that realization until the end game where he gets a rude awakening.


STEADY LEAK ON THE VERGE OF BURSTING. Our favourite leaky faucet, Liz has been a top player this season, but has been playing an extremely chaotic game. She's positioned herself well by being able to target people she didn't have connections to in Alex and Michael and see Ali leave without her direct input, but as the game progresses Liz is someone people are starting to notice is well connected, playing a strong game and very loose with information. Her chaotic panic to let everyone know Quintin knew he was getting votes was the first glimpse into people realizing she is a messier player and right now she's riding the middle with everyone and is going to have to pick a side. Liz has had a correct assessment on some players in the game, she was a big player in Michael winning and realizing you can't have players like Michael in the game who will take up spots in the Finale, but what she's missing is that her next few rounds of targeting big threats will leave her on the chopping block sooner than later. I think she's putting too much stock in people playing for her best interests because so far they have, but as she starts betraying people we'll see if she can keep things together.


THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN. Erin went from absolutely running the show with her new tribe to being in an underdog position quickly in this game and honestly I love to see it! Seeing Erin play from a position where she's not secure and it's not easy for her is a lot more interesting and I think she has the ability to do well. Erin is great at not wanting to make moves that don't benefit her, the problem is when she doesn't have the agency to be picky it would benefit her to bend a little to gain some favour. Erin has a tough road to the end because if she gets there the storyline she would have would guarantee her the win, but it would be to a lot of players benefits to have Erin still around as a shield. Her goal should be to just fight and claw for this one round at a time because as the challenge front runner of the group, if she can get through one round at a time she could get some clutch wins to vault her to the end.


THE POPULAR VOTE.  Poor Gage, he really has just been the easy name to throw out all season. Even this round his name is once again being tossed out. He's done well to pull some close allies who have his back considering he's been playing from a low position the majority of the game. That being said the time he's invested  in relationship building has set him up to potentially make a deep run if he can continue to cockroach through this game. If Gage makes it through this round, I think we start to see a shift in the narrative from the "easy vote" to the "big threat" and I think he'll become someone a lot of players want voting with them. He could potentially be that dark horse players that sneaks their way to the end against all odds and has a very convincing case to win.


THE SLEEPER PICK. I've really loved watching Juan play this season. He's not playing the flashiest game but he's definitely slowly appearing on people's radars and pulling together a very strong case to win. I love a player that shamelessly does what's best for them and Juan has been making really smart and calculated decisions to advance himself further without pushing things too far like a lot of the rest of the cast has. He's been a calm in the sea of chaos and has capitalized on a lot of people's mistakes and I'm excited to see if he can continue to do so!


THE ICE QUEEN STARTS TO THAW. Karen is so much fun to watch, but I do have to call out, I don't think she's playing as well as she was earlier this season. After the Alex vote Karen kind of shut a bunch of the cast out so when she received votes at a Tribal Council she wasn't that shocked, but I don't think she realizes just how close she was to going and how there was a whole attempt by a group of people to take her down that round. She's starting to open up to more players and reopen the dialogue which will help her advance. I think as the game progresses Karen will find herself potentially on the wrong side of votes and will need anyone she can find that is willing to play with her, so getting back in good with people and being a bit more flexible and understanding will help her on her quest to win.


"THE OUTSIDER". Mathes has played one of the most dynamic games this season and similar to Erin I think having things not go his way at certain points has helped him a lot because he needed some humility to really help him reshape his game and get him in the position he is to have a real shot at winning. He has a great read on the game, he has a ton of options for allies and a bunch of people wanting to protect him and he knows his best path to a win. The question is when does Mathes really step into the sun and make that path a reality. He was messaging us today about how he recognizes Erin and Liz, although close to him, as players who will beat him and his ideal Final 3 being Him/Karen/Brian. The problem is that his connections to that Final 3 don't exist and low key aren't realistic and the time is ticking! For him to bank on certain players falling, he needs to start dropping the seeds and not be hesitant to make those money moves. If he waits too long the opportunity may pass him by, but it all comes down to risk. Does he risk his safe position with bigger players who trust him that he's bound to go far with? I really hope he does because if he can get both Erin and Liz out of the game, he has a lot that he came claim over the rest of the players for why he should win, but if he fails to do so, either would be tough for him to beat.


THE FAVOURITE LOSES FAVOUR. Early on talking about Quintin I said he gave off "big winner energy" and what I predicted would be a struggle for him is people seeing him as a winner early on and cutting him because of it. We have reached that moment.....well we reached it two rounds ago but now we're really here where he has no Immunity or anything to really save him. I think Quintin has played well, but is nowhere near the threat people credit him as. At some point in this game I think every player other than Karen (and maybe Erin once she lost majority) has been ok with Quintin leaving. Quintin also hasn't really been a start performer in any challenge, so why is he such an urgent threat for people? I wish Quintin played a bit more into his threat level and really worked to group together the other bigger threats and push people who are less threatening to win, but threatening to make the end. I think a lot of players are blowing their load gunning for Quintin as early as they are, and doing so in very chaotic and overcomplicated ways. Will Quintin's luck run out this round?

[Casey]

Erin calls it out in her confessional the theme of this season is a lot more dependent on interpersonal relationships and much less on alliances, and its a shitshow scramble before tribal every time since the merge. There are really not too many alliance chats esp after the quintin boot.

The Michael Boot

Erin winning immunity this round was super clutch for her but she again as she calls it “is the kid that no one wants to play with at the playground. Everyone who befriends her is getting clipped! It’s been tough to see Erin go through this and feel hopeless. I think she made an excellent recovery, but the reason I think people havent included her in plans, is that shes been not super flexible in the past, esp with her ratting the Quintin plan during the Ali boot. After that people have really wanted to work with her, but I wouldnt say the other players were wrong for targeting her allies. Michael didnt really care, would take up a spot in the end and was voting however Erin wanted. She’s been at least looped in on most of the votes even if she hasnt voted correctly. Erin wants herself and OG genovesa to vote Karen, and then have it split on Michael and Gage if Quintin idols Karen. Erin wanted Gage as a back up target if her Karen plan didnt pan out this round. Quintin’s name was also brought up again but he seemed to take the craziness of the Ali vote well. Overall this was one of the most simple votes of the game.

The Quintin Round

Oh wow another crazy round! So there has been this narrative of Brian and Quintin being close which was pretty true, Brian held Quintin’s extra vote for a while and I think Quintin saw Brian was no real threat. So everyone started this round saying it has to be Brian or Quintin they cant both make it to the next round. The double immunity really saved both Erin and Juan’s asses, I think they both needed that. Juan has been floating along but in a good way, hes voted right, hes constantly one of the swing votes, and people were talking about him for a hot second after Michael left. Liz, Gage, Mathes are pretty much on board with Quintin from the beginning. Mathes of course tells Erin and Erin is not about this whatsoever, and she tries very very hard to push a Brian vote to save Quintin. Quintin throws out Mathes name, which Erin shuts down and then says Brian. Quintin also was out living his life and they took the shot while he was out. Mathes and later Juan as well tells her it looks like it is going to be Quintin towards the end. Gage tells Karen right before and she is not happy, and votes for him. Erin and Quintin vote Brian. Gage and OG Yellow vote Quintin.

Losing Quintin here really sucks. He was always willing to shake things up and make bold plays, which is probably why he went out here but it was so fun to watch. He had such a good hold on his tribes but even pre-merge people clocked this. Quintin is also one of the only people to genuinely not ghost people and burn them if things dont go his way.

[Casey]

Final 7

This round was super crazy, like always the round starts with people making questionable decisions. Pushing for things that arent great for them etc. The round starts with Liz winning immunity which doesnt really change anything.

At first the vote is Gage vs Erin and for the most part of the day, against their best interest Liz, Brian and Mathes want to keep Erin. Juan is the only one out of the 4 who was really pushing for Erin, which esp for Juan is a good move. Erin was a triple threat. Even though she was a free agent and didnt necessarily have to go right there, it didnt hurt anyone but I think really Liz and Karen to take her out. Since the girls have been the three biggest threats since the merge. It really looked like it was going to be be Gage for most of the day until about an hour an a half before tribal, while John and I were filming the Con Q&A the vote flipped to Erin. Mathes turned on her. He states in his confessional that Erin will go to the jury championing for him, him but Erin is so defeated and fed up, and Mathes should have known he needed to do a pity vote. Liz even gave him the opportunity and he declined!!!! And then she swooped it up from him and the jury has been the Liz fan club.

At this point Gage has fully jumped from Karen to the OG Yellow. This is not looked at well by the jury.

There was a last minute push in the chats between the ladies to target Juan but it didnt really go anywhere. Karen votes Gage I think for fun? Liz votes for Gage for Erin, but then Erin announces at tribal shes voting for Juan.

It was really sad to see Erin go here. You can really see how much of a triple threat she is and how hard she fights. Hse did everything possible to save herself, but she just radiated threat. Everyone SIMPed for her and it was so obvious they were doing what she said, she was even turing players like Quintin back over to her side! Erin leaving here could possibly be the downfall of the rest of the women that we have all been dreading. She probably would have targeted Gage again, but her calling out Juan was a good insight. She would have kept things spicy and moving like it does always before tribal. True icon. A gut punch to the season. Hopefully Erin learned a little bit more about playing from the bottom in such a tough position, no one wants to be there and it is rough. She really was cordial for a few rounds, but I totally understand why she was worn out towards the end. It’s been nice to see her cheer up in the jury.

Final 6

UGH Juan would have been such a fun rep for the season crushed to see him go here but he was kinda that dark horse threat.

The plan was discussed early in the round between Liz and Mathes and they were ready to get them to split the votes and have 3 just with Mathes vote, this looking like Mathes move, but Liz wanted to tell Brian and Karen which ends up happening, they all vote Juan. Gage thinks its a split on him and Karen, tells karen hes voting for her she says they are lying to him, Gage doesnt believe her. Juan votes for Gage thinking thats the plan.

Liz really needed this immunity Mathes has been waiting to take the shot and Liz. Shes playing the best game and looking cute doing it. Shes been so messy but her name has still not really been brought up. It’s gonna be uphill battle for Karen and Liz to make the end but if they do that would be a great ending.