Post by John on Dec 13, 2022 17:26:59 GMT
PHASE 4: FINALE
We made it! This has been an interesting comeback season for the series. I think its been a great showcase of the new generation of ORGers and honestly how despite some quirks to their gameplay, the chaos they bring, the way they approach the game, it's fast, it's loose and it can be a bit mind boggling at times. I've gone back and forth on this season as a whole. The pre-merge was pretty boring and disappointing overall (barring the JM vote, sorry JM!). Losing Ang and Cass in the pre-merge phase over less dynamic players really hurt the season from an entertainment perspective. I think they would have brought a lot to the game and we really missed out. I think losing Caroline and Tegwyth early on was a major bummer too because I think they're two newbies who got written off by their tribe and had a lot more potential if people had given them the chance. Also overally we had a lot of powers have very short lived lives in the game, the beware advantage risk made for an iconic moment (sorry again JM!) but ultimately didn't have long term impact. So overall this season represented to us a chance to test some risks around casting, tribes and twists and overall although not a phenomenal season, still was solid and we got a lot of learnings out of it!
So now onto the Finale. I think this Final 5 has no runaway star player, something I can say about this season in general. For every strength each player has shown in their gameplay, they've also had some equally big weaknesses. As a result I really think this is a pretty open game where anyone can win, which is exciting to a degree but also kind of disappointing because this season won't have that great winner we love to see from a series. But this season being the follow up of C20 it was also going to have a high bar to pass.
Now let's talk about the Final 5...
So now onto the Finale. I think this Final 5 has no runaway star player, something I can say about this season in general. For every strength each player has shown in their gameplay, they've also had some equally big weaknesses. As a result I really think this is a pretty open game where anyone can win, which is exciting to a degree but also kind of disappointing because this season won't have that great winner we love to see from a series. But this season being the follow up of C20 it was also going to have a high bar to pass.
Now let's talk about the Final 5...
BRIAN
After being written off as a goat pretty early on in the merge, I think by chilling and dropping a lot of the bullshit like his rivalry with Ali have helped Brian fade more into the background and to have his gameplay and ability to avoid ever being a target make him into a genuine threat to win. I think players like Gage and Mathes especially have always seen Brian as the optimal person for them to go against in the end which has granted Brian a lot of opportunity to avoid being voted out, but funny enough in a game where a lot of people will typically be considered goats in different Final 3 combinations, in a Brian/Gage/Mathes Final 3, I wouldn't count out Brian's chances at winning! He's stayed on good terms with some pivotal jury members, but I do think his biggest weakness is lack of self-awareness in the game. I need to see him cut Liz to fully buy into Brian's game and show that he realizes he wasn't some all time player and just dominating. He needs to recognize his weaknesses and I want to see him make a move to really position himself to win, otherwise I think if he does win it's more chalked up to being the best of the rest.
LIZ
Easily the strongest player left, if Liz makes the win she'd win. The problem with Liz though is that she's totally missed on this game from the perspective of how she's being perceived and positioning herself with players of her caliber. Liz has played this game not afraid of going for the big moves, taking out the big players, but we knew this would happen, Liz has gotten to the point where she's now the very clear big player left and it's all because of how she's played. The Erin round is a perfect example, Liz was 100% in on that plan, but played it up like she wasn't with a very angry juror. So Liz gets the benefit of staying on Erin's good side, while Erin goes to the jury and shit talks everyone else. Of course to a player like Mathes who's getting all the heat for a move that Liz was equally involved in but is getting none will realize that she is going to win if he's against her in the end. Liz played well but in future games she needs to insulate herself with stronger partners and ensure she's on their level, because I think Liz could have beaten anyone this season but by getting to this situation, I think her trying to get to the end and expected allies stay loyal and simply lose to her has set her up to get cut at the first chance she does. If she doesn't go at Final 5 after she's lost Immunity I will be SHOCKED, but with this cast who knows, it could happen....
GAGE
The king of seeing his name at Tribal Council, there's a lot of confusion in the perception of Gage in this game, whether he's a goat because he's always been targeted or if he's a threat because he's always been targeted. I really like Gage's performance this season, I think he's had a really fun storyline and I'm more on the side that his game is underrated. He literally came into the merge with nobody and has been able to scratch and claw his way to the end. The problem is that a lot of the jurors who think highly of themselves don't necessarily respect the game he's played because he's always been the scapegoat, but in these last rounds if Gage really leaves his mark in his gameplay and shows that his game was not avoiding being voted out, I could see him having a genuine shot at winning.
KAREN
Easily one of my favourite players this season, I love how Karen speaks at Tribal Council, literally everything she says is gold and people should be listening to her! Unfortunately for Karen, her lack of agency in the game right now has left her at the whim of other players, but if she could somehow make the end I think she represents that Sandra in Heroes vs Villains style of winner who is like I told you what was going on, I tried to help you and even though it was in your best interest you were the one shutting me down. It shows that despite the push for people to be making big moves that so often resulted in chaos this season, but direct and having a point of view is really the tried and true most effective strategy and that's why I think people see Karen as a winner contender. If she had the agency to back that up and not be in this anyone but me situation I think she would be better serviced, but for now Karen just needs to do whatever she can do to make the end to have a shot at this! That won't be easy though.
MATHES
I've been very hard on Mathes all season and that's because I see the potential of a great player there and honestly of the people left in the game, I feel like Mathes has played the winning game. I think with his inexperience though, every strength he's had in the game has a near or greater weakness that puts him in the position where a win would be very difficult. Throughout the game Mathes has known what was going on at almost every second, with the exception of the chaos around the Ali vote where honestly everyone in the game was blindsided. When Mathes makes the end he's going to have a extremely compelling story of the game he's played, the control he's had and how he's really run this merge. Now I'm sure you're asking yourself....where's the but? This all sounds great so why wouldn't Mathes be the clear winner, and the answer is how he handled the Erin round, and honestly just his social bonds all around. Mathes made the right move taking out Erin when he did, but the way he handled it was wrong. He let Liz get away with his out on that move, because even though Mathes knew Erin was going, he played like he had more power than he did to change things, he let Liz be the hero and him be the villain and I think in general jury management has been a major weakness to his game. He's thrived in the shadows and allowing people to assume he has been just playing in the background and is a non-threat, and he needed to break out of that shadow and own his game sooner than he has. It's not impossible to go for the Final Tribal Council expose that I was actually running things all along play, but to really sell that you need at least a champion on the jury and Erin could have been that player for him. If he pulls off the blindside on Liz tonight maybe she will become that voice, but Mathes' biggest challenge will be how he burned people throughout the game and although he may be stuck in a gamebot mindset where he thinks he can overcome that against people he deems have played a worse game, I don't think it will be that simple and that blindspot is his biggest weakness in the game.
After being written off as a goat pretty early on in the merge, I think by chilling and dropping a lot of the bullshit like his rivalry with Ali have helped Brian fade more into the background and to have his gameplay and ability to avoid ever being a target make him into a genuine threat to win. I think players like Gage and Mathes especially have always seen Brian as the optimal person for them to go against in the end which has granted Brian a lot of opportunity to avoid being voted out, but funny enough in a game where a lot of people will typically be considered goats in different Final 3 combinations, in a Brian/Gage/Mathes Final 3, I wouldn't count out Brian's chances at winning! He's stayed on good terms with some pivotal jury members, but I do think his biggest weakness is lack of self-awareness in the game. I need to see him cut Liz to fully buy into Brian's game and show that he realizes he wasn't some all time player and just dominating. He needs to recognize his weaknesses and I want to see him make a move to really position himself to win, otherwise I think if he does win it's more chalked up to being the best of the rest.
LIZ
Easily the strongest player left, if Liz makes the win she'd win. The problem with Liz though is that she's totally missed on this game from the perspective of how she's being perceived and positioning herself with players of her caliber. Liz has played this game not afraid of going for the big moves, taking out the big players, but we knew this would happen, Liz has gotten to the point where she's now the very clear big player left and it's all because of how she's played. The Erin round is a perfect example, Liz was 100% in on that plan, but played it up like she wasn't with a very angry juror. So Liz gets the benefit of staying on Erin's good side, while Erin goes to the jury and shit talks everyone else. Of course to a player like Mathes who's getting all the heat for a move that Liz was equally involved in but is getting none will realize that she is going to win if he's against her in the end. Liz played well but in future games she needs to insulate herself with stronger partners and ensure she's on their level, because I think Liz could have beaten anyone this season but by getting to this situation, I think her trying to get to the end and expected allies stay loyal and simply lose to her has set her up to get cut at the first chance she does. If she doesn't go at Final 5 after she's lost Immunity I will be SHOCKED, but with this cast who knows, it could happen....
GAGE
The king of seeing his name at Tribal Council, there's a lot of confusion in the perception of Gage in this game, whether he's a goat because he's always been targeted or if he's a threat because he's always been targeted. I really like Gage's performance this season, I think he's had a really fun storyline and I'm more on the side that his game is underrated. He literally came into the merge with nobody and has been able to scratch and claw his way to the end. The problem is that a lot of the jurors who think highly of themselves don't necessarily respect the game he's played because he's always been the scapegoat, but in these last rounds if Gage really leaves his mark in his gameplay and shows that his game was not avoiding being voted out, I could see him having a genuine shot at winning.
KAREN
Easily one of my favourite players this season, I love how Karen speaks at Tribal Council, literally everything she says is gold and people should be listening to her! Unfortunately for Karen, her lack of agency in the game right now has left her at the whim of other players, but if she could somehow make the end I think she represents that Sandra in Heroes vs Villains style of winner who is like I told you what was going on, I tried to help you and even though it was in your best interest you were the one shutting me down. It shows that despite the push for people to be making big moves that so often resulted in chaos this season, but direct and having a point of view is really the tried and true most effective strategy and that's why I think people see Karen as a winner contender. If she had the agency to back that up and not be in this anyone but me situation I think she would be better serviced, but for now Karen just needs to do whatever she can do to make the end to have a shot at this! That won't be easy though.
MATHES
I've been very hard on Mathes all season and that's because I see the potential of a great player there and honestly of the people left in the game, I feel like Mathes has played the winning game. I think with his inexperience though, every strength he's had in the game has a near or greater weakness that puts him in the position where a win would be very difficult. Throughout the game Mathes has known what was going on at almost every second, with the exception of the chaos around the Ali vote where honestly everyone in the game was blindsided. When Mathes makes the end he's going to have a extremely compelling story of the game he's played, the control he's had and how he's really run this merge. Now I'm sure you're asking yourself....where's the but? This all sounds great so why wouldn't Mathes be the clear winner, and the answer is how he handled the Erin round, and honestly just his social bonds all around. Mathes made the right move taking out Erin when he did, but the way he handled it was wrong. He let Liz get away with his out on that move, because even though Mathes knew Erin was going, he played like he had more power than he did to change things, he let Liz be the hero and him be the villain and I think in general jury management has been a major weakness to his game. He's thrived in the shadows and allowing people to assume he has been just playing in the background and is a non-threat, and he needed to break out of that shadow and own his game sooner than he has. It's not impossible to go for the Final Tribal Council expose that I was actually running things all along play, but to really sell that you need at least a champion on the jury and Erin could have been that player for him. If he pulls off the blindside on Liz tonight maybe she will become that voice, but Mathes' biggest challenge will be how he burned people throughout the game and although he may be stuck in a gamebot mindset where he thinks he can overcome that against people he deems have played a worse game, I don't think it will be that simple and that blindspot is his biggest weakness in the game.